It is increasingly becoming clear that renewables are going to rule the roost, in terms of adding new power generation capacity. With Europe taking a lead, it is expected that about 92% of the electricity needs shall be met using renewables. [Source : New Energy Outlook]
EU has a region has massive ambitions and becoming carbon neutral. US on the other hand, is starting out, and
has not yet started to achieve the growth rates that can be expected out of a super power nation that it is. The future also points towards a simlar trend with renewables comprising less than 45% of the energy mix till 2050. In Europe, this figure is likely to cross 75%.
has not yet started to achieve the growth rates that can be expected out of a super power nation that it is. The future also points towards a simlar trend with renewables comprising less than 45% of the energy mix till 2050. In Europe, this figure is likely to cross 75%.
New power generation additions in India and China shall also likely grow at more than double the rate of any other energy souce for the next 20-25 years. Both markets present a greater than 4 trillion USD market for power generation industry and one can well imagine the share of renewables in this space. Both markets are unlikely to be missed out by any serious renewable player operating on the global level.
Importantly, it is predicted that Oil will be the big loser, and would have disappeared as a source of energy by 2050. And in terms of energy mix, share, will have been reduced to a 12% slice of the pie
What does it mean for the consumer ?
For the average consumer, for households, in India and China, that consume around 10-20KW of peak load every day, its a sign that should hold attention. Decentralised power ( read solar rootop plants) shall be the order of the day, and the sooner consumers realise that, it is better for them and for realizing financial savings. In India, today, an average household energy / electricity share is roughly around 7-10% of monthly spend. The figure varies depending on demographics, season, and location. State tariffs are different and they cause some variation on the overall monthly spend as well.
Through deploying solar rooftops, it is possible for a household to minimize that spend and bring it to a 1-2% level of monthly spends. Imagine the unlocking of spends that can do to a country;s consumer base. A similar story exists in China , though being a major hub of PV manufacturing, prices have already spiraled downwards there.
Each household going solar, at an average installation size of a 10KWp rooftop solar plant can save roughly about INR 9000 per month at today’s electricity rates. For a larger plant, savings will naturally be more depending on load conditions and average electricity consumption of the household. The electricity rates will normally rise over the next 10 to 20 years and the savings will increase.
What does it mean for the economy ?
A rough calculation suggests that an unlocking of over a 1.5 trillion INR ( 0.02 trillion USD) annual value for the next 25 years, can be freed up, into household budgets, given the right mix of government policy, consumer choices, quality, and visibility to a campaign that can get just 10 million households ( representing about 1% of households) to switch to a 15 KW solar rooftop power plant. It is a mind boggling consumer basket that can be unlocked leading to a massive emissions reduction and helping climate change / meeting UN sustainability goals as well.
Solutions for the future
Renewables mixed with storage shall be the key, and more and more consumers will massively benefit if they can move to a completely solar based solutions with very little dependence on the grid. Easier said than done, but some of the off grid players like Urja Unlimited can help consumers go completely off the grid, using a mix of battery based storage, load optimization and solar PV generation.